Extispicy: Natural Born Killers

December 29, 2004

Natural Born Killers

In a couple of recent conversations I had with friends where the South Asian earthquake/tsunami catastrophe was mentioned, I was surprised when these friends segued into indicating global warming being to blame. When I replied that global warming has nothing to do with earthquakes -- that the earth's plates pretty much shifted on their own unfathomable timetable that had nothing to do with what we did or didn't do -- I was met with skeptical and perplexed stares. It occured to me, after the second of these conversations, that maybe people often NEED to blame ourselves (or a fellow human scapegoat) for natural disasters -- perhaps so not to feel so utterly powerless or something of the sort? Perhaps, for some, blaming catastrophes, as once was common, on our "sins" (which the gods will punish us for) or, more currently, on our "excesses" (global warming) gives the illusion that there is possibly a way to stave off or fix future similar sorts of devastation.

Thus, today, I found it interesting to read Mick Hume's article in Spiked: After the tsunami: horrifying, but not 'humbling', where he delved into some similar musings at great length as well as some other notable points.

I have some further thoughts, though, on this point of his:

"There has been much talk about the lack of a hi-tech warning system for earthquakes and tsunamis in South Asia, such as the seismological monitoring system already in place in the Pacific Ocean (where such phenomena are more common). Yet whatever its merits, such a system would seem to be of limited use in societies that lack the basic infrastructure necessary to communicate warnings and evacuate communities. Some in the West may be shocked to learn that not every little Asian fishing village is on the internet...."

I think it's important, though, to also keep in mind that the effectiveness of any hi-tech early warning system for an approaching tsunami is likely to be affected by the earthquake that causes the tsunami. An earthquake of the magnitude that can cause a tsunami is devastating all on its own. Those all-important infrastructures Mr. Hume refers to might be severely compromised and damaged in an earthquake. Power often will be knocked out during an earthquake and evacuation routes might be blocked by fallen debris or by roads and bridges collapsing. So, in such situations, even the most-wired high tech modern metropolis can suddenly be rendered as internet-less (and infrastructure-less) as some of those little Asian fishing villages Mr. Hume refers to.

Although this certainly doesn't mean that hi-tech early warning systems would not be useful or desirable, still, there is only so much they can do, even in the best of circumstances.

People shouldn't overlook the fact that the earthquake (and/or the tide receding abnormally) is in itself THE significant (albeit low tech) early warning system -- as pointed out in two other articles I saw later on today. One was this article from S.F. Gate that speculates on the effects of a tsunami on the Californian coastline:

"Whatever triggers a future tsunami, Californians need to remember at least one thing, says Richard Eisner, coastal administrative chief for the state Office of Emergency Services:
"'If you are on the beach and feel an earthquake that lasts more than 15 to 20 seconds, and you have difficulty standing, you should immediately evacuate to high ground. Don't wait for notification (of a tsunami) because you might have only 10 to 15 minutes (before the tsunami strikes).'"

The second was an OpinionJournal article that describes the reaction of both locals and tourists, neither of whom seemed aware of the possible hazard of a tsunami hitting coastal areas after an earthquake (probably because in that area, tsunamis and tidal waves have been rare):

"The response of local residents and tourists, however, was unfamiliar, at least to tsunami field scientists for post-1990s tsunamis. In one report, swimmers felt the current associated with the leading depression wave approaching the beach, yet hesitated about getting out of the water because of the 'noise' and the fear that there was an earthquake and they would be safer away from buildings. They had to be told by tourists from Japan--a land where an understanding of tsunamis is now almost hard-wired in the genes--to run to high ground...."

Posted by m bat on December 29, 2004 03:58 PM | TrackBack
categories: life + death

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